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今天小编为大家带来「越览（57）：精读期刊论文
【基于前景理论和属性相关的概率语言 SIR 多属性
群决策方法及应用】的
2.概率语言术语集与前景理论(2)」。
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increase knowledge，and leave beautiful.
Dear, this is LearningYard Academy!
Today, the editor brings you the
＂ Yue Lan (57)：Intensive reading of the journal article
＇Multi-attribute group decision making method
and its application based on
prospect theory and attribute-related probabilistic
language SIR: 2. Probability language terminology
set and prospect theory (2) ＇＂.
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一、内容摘要（Summary of content）
本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍期刊论文【基于前景理论和属性相关的概率语言 SIR 多属性群决策方法及应用】的概率语言术语集与前景理论 (2)：前景理论与 SIR 法的方案间差异刻画。
This tweet will introduce the Probability Language Terminology Set and Prospect Theory (2): Difference between prospect theory and SIR method of the journal paper "Multi-attribute group decision making method and its application based on prospect theory and attribute-related probabilistic language SIR" from three aspects: mind mapping, intensive reading content, and knowledge supplementation.
二、思维导图（Mind mapping）
三、精读内容（Intensive reading content）
（一）前景理论（Prospect theory）
本部分作者首先介绍了前景理论，前景理论提供了一种强大的框架，用于理解和预测人在面临不确定性和风险时的决策行为。在本文中，前景理论是由前景价值函数和心理权重函数组成的综合前景值来刻画方案间的差异，具体形公式如下所示：
The author of this part first introduces prospect theory, which provides a powerful framework for understanding and predicting human decision-making behavior in the face of uncertainty and risk. In this paper, prospect theory is a comprehensive prospect value composed of prospect value function and psychological weight function to describe the differences between schemes. The specific formula is as follows:
接着作者介绍了在前景理论中结合一种能直接刻画方案间两两比较情况以及能考虑信息客观不确定性的比较函数的原因。前景价值函数通过将方案的收益和损失与预期参考点进行对比，来评估方案的价值。然而，正负理想点的选择受到决策者自身和外界因素的显著影响。现有的研究在使用前景价值函数时，并不是直接将方案进行两两对比，而是更多地依赖于单个方案与参考点的对比。
Then the author introduces the reasons for combining a comparison function in prospect theory that can directly describe the pair comparison between schemes and take into account the objective uncertainty of the information. The prospect value function evaluates the value of the scheme by comparing the benefits and losses of the scheme with the expected reference point. However, the choice of positive and negative ideal points is significantly influenced by the decision maker's own and external factors. Existing studies do not directly compare the scheme in pairs when using the prospect value function, but rely more on the comparison of individual schemes with reference points.
此外，心理权重函数反映了决策者对方案收益和损失出现概率的主观判断，但决策环境的不确定性还包括信息的客观不确定性。因此，为了更符合现实的决策情况，前景理论需要结合一种能直接刻画方案间两两比较情况的函数，并且能够考虑信息的客观不确定性。这样的改进可以使前景理论在多属性群决策中更加实用和准确。
In addition, the psychological weight function reflects the subjective judgment of the decision-maker on the probability of the benefit and loss of the scheme, but the uncertainty of the decision-making environment also includes the objective uncertainty of the information. Therefore, in order to be more in line with the realistic decision-making situation, the prospect theory needs to be combined with a function that can directly describe the two-pair comparison between the schemes, and can take into account the objective uncertainty of the information. Such an improvement can make the prospect theory more practical and accurate in multi-attribute group decision-making.
（二）SIR 法的方案间差异刻画（Difference characterization of SIR method between schemes）
作者介绍了刻画方案间两两差异的排序法中，部分研究采用的经典SIR法的三个步骤。
The author introduces the three steps of the classical SIR method used in some studies to characterize the differences between schemes.
首先，基于一般性准则构建偏好差别函数，辅助构建方案的优、劣势度：
First, the preference difference function is constructed based on general criteria to assist in building the advantages and disadvantages of the scheme:
其次，结合属性权重值w得方案的优、劣势流：
Secondly, the advantages and disadvantages of the scheme are obtained by combining the attribute weight value w:
最后，根据优、劣势流的对比排序，以清晰判断出方案间的差异情况。
Finally, according to the comparative ranking of advantages and disadvantages, the differences between the schemes can be clearly judged.
然而，该过程还应考虑决策者的心理行为因素。例如：当决策者发现某个方案有确定收益时，会倾向于选择该方案，表现出「风险规避」。当某个方案的确定损失很小，而其他方案的收益、损失情况未知时，决策者可能愿意冒险选择其他方案，表现出「风险喜好」。
However, the process should also take into account the decision-maker's psychological and behavioral factors. For example, when decision-makers find that a certain plan has certain benefits, they will tend to choose that plan, showing "risk aversion". When the determined losses of one plan are small, and the benefits and losses of other plans are unknown, decision-makers may be willing to take risks and choose other options, showing "risk appetite".
这些现象描述了决策者在不同风险偏好下的方案选择情况，但现有研究尚未广泛将此类情形拓展到经典SIR法中。大多数研究仅利用简单的对比函数来刻画方案间的差异，未能充分展示风险偏好对经典SIR法排序规则的影响。因此，本文将前景理论与经典SIR法相结合， 既能够以主客观综合性角度刻画方案间的差异，又能 够拓展前景理论和经典SIR法在决策环境中的应用。
These phenomena describe decision-makers' choice of options under different risk preferences, but existing studies have not widely extended such scenarios to classical SIR methods. Most studies only use simple contrast functions to describe the differences between options, failing to fully demonstrate the impact of risk preferences on the ranking rules of classical SIR methods. Therefore, this paper combines prospect theory with classical SIR method, which can not only describe the differences between options from a subjective and objective comprehensive perspective, but also expand the application of prospect theory and classical SIR method in decision-making environments.
四、知识补充（Knowledge supplement）
1． 前景价值函数（Foreground value function）
想象你在做决定时，会把现在的状况作为一个「参考点」。比如，如果你现在有100元，那么100元就是你的参考点。当你面对一个可能赚100元或亏100元的选择时，你会把这个选择与100元这个参考点进行对比。
Imagine your current situation as a "reference point" when making a decision. For example, if you have $100 now, then $100 is your reference point. When you are faced with a choice that could make $100 or lose $100, you compare that choice to the reference point of $100.
收益：如果赚100元，你就会觉得很开心，因为你的财富从100元增加到了200元。
Income: If you earn 100 yuan, you will feel very happy because your wealth has increased from 100 yuan to 200 yuan.
损失：如果亏100元，你可能会觉得非常不开心，因为你的财富从100元减少到了0元。
Loss: If you lose 100 yuan, you may feel very unhappy because your wealth has been reduced from 100 yuan to 0 yuan.
这里的关键是，人们对损失的敏感度通常比对收益的敏感度更高。也就是说，失去100元带来的痛苦比获得100元带来的快乐更强烈。
The crux of the matter here is that people tend to be more sensitive to losses than to gains, meaning that the pain of losing $100 is more intense than the pleasure of gaining $100.
2. 正负理想点（Positive and negative ideal point）
在实际决策中，参考点可以进一步细分为「正理想点」和「负理想点」：
In practical decision-making, reference points can be further subdivided into "positive ideal points" and "negative ideal points":
正理想点：是你希望达到的最佳状态。比如，你希望自己的财富达到500元。
The ideal point: is the best state you want to achieve. For example, you want your wealth to reach 500 yuan.
负理想点：是你最不愿意接受的最坏状态。比如，你最不愿意自己的财富降到0元。
Negative ideal point: is the worst state you are least willing to accept. For example, you are least willing to drop your wealth to 0 yuan.
这些理想点的选择受到很多因素的影响，包括你的个人经历、社会环境、文化背景等。
The choice of these ideal points is influenced by many factors, including your personal experience, social environment, and cultural background.
3. 心理权重函数（Psychological weight function）
心理权重函数描述了你对某个事件发生概率的主观感受。举个例子：
A mental weight function describes your subjective feeling about the probability of an event occurring. For example:
如果你被告知有1%的概率赢得1000元，你可能会觉得这个概率很低，几乎不可能发生。但如果有人告诉你有99%的概率赢得1000元，你可能会觉得这个概率非常高，几乎肯定会发生。但实际上，1%和99%的概率并不是完全被忽视或完全信任的。人们往往会高估小概率事件，低估大概率事件。
If you are told that there is a 1% chance of winning $1,000, you may think that the probability is very low and almost impossible to happen. But if someone tells you that there is a 99% chance of winning $1,000, you may think that the probability is very high and almost certain to happen. But in reality, 1% and 99% probabilities are not completely ignored or completely trusted. People tend to overestimate small probability events and underestimate high probability events.
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翻译：火山翻译
参考资料：百度百科、通义千问
参考文献：于文玉. 基于多粒度犹豫模糊语言信息的多属性群决策方法研究 [D]. 大连理工大学, 2021.
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