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巴菲特:市场行为越失措,你能得到的好处就越多!

2024-01-29股票
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周末没事,发点老巴的内容给大家看看,只要你用周期思维看待当下的A股就不会太慌张了。

还是我前几天说过的话,目前A股+港股+中概股的全部市值,占中国23年GDP的65%左右。这还是里面包含了上千只新股次新股。而美国这一数据是200%,日本150%,印度也超过115%了。相信常识,大A肯定会回归的。

这段时间就是市场先生情绪沮丧的时候,他拼命的想把股票塞给你,至于你买或卖,本质上最后都是为你自己的认知买单。

巴菲特:市场行为越失措,你能得到的好处就越多!

Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.

本杰明·格雷厄姆是我的老师,也是我的朋友,很久以前讲过一段有关对于市场波动心态的话,是我认为对于投资获利最有帮助的一席话。他说投资人可以试着将股票市场的波动当作是一位市场先生每天给你的报价。他就像是一家私人企业的合伙人,不管怎样,市场先生每天都会报个价格要买下你的股份或是将手中股份卖给你。

Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market's quotations will be anything. Sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.

即使是你们所共同拥有的合伙企业经营稳定变化不大,市场先生每天还是会固定提出报价。同时市场先生有个毛病,那就是他的情绪很不稳定。当他高兴时,往往只看到合伙企业好的一面,所以为了避免手中的股份被你买走,他会提出一个很高的价格,甚至想要从你手中买下你拥有的股份;但有时候,当他觉得沮丧时,眼中看到的只是这家企业的一堆问题,这时他会提出一个非常低的报价要把股份卖给你,因为他很怕你会将手中的股份塞给他。

Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.

市场先生还有一个很可爱的特点,那就是他不在乎受到冷落。若今天他提出的报价不被接受,隔天他还是会上门重新报价,要不要交易完全由你自主,所以在这种情况下,他的行为举止越失措,你可能得到的好处也就越多。

以上内容节选自1987年巴菲特致股东信