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巴菲特:市場行為越失措,你能得到的好處就越多!

2024-01-29股票
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周末沒事,發點老巴的內容給大家看看,只要你用周期思維看待當下的A股就不會太慌張了。

還是我前幾天說過的話,目前A股+港股+中概股的全部市值,占中國23年GDP的65%左右。這還是裏麵包含了上千只新股次新股。而美國這一數據是200%,日本150%,印度也超過115%了。相信常識,大A肯定會回歸的。

這段時間就是市場先生情緒沮喪的時候,他拼命的想把股票塞給你,至於你買或賣,本質上最後都是為你自己的認知買單。

巴菲特:市場行為越失措,你能得到的好處就越多!

Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.

本傑明·格雷厄姆是我的老師,也是我的朋友,很久以前講過一段有關對於市場波動心態的話,是我認為對於投資獲利最有幫助的一席話。他說投資人可以試著將股票市場的波動當作是一位市場先生每天給你的報價。他就像是一家私人企業的合夥人,不管怎樣,市場先生每天都會報個價格要買下你的股份或是將手中股份賣給你。

Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market's quotations will be anything. Sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.

即使是你們所共同擁有的合夥企業經營穩定變化不大,市場先生每天還是會固定提出報價。同時市場先生有個毛病,那就是他的情緒很不穩定。當他高興時,往往只看到合夥企業好的一面,所以為了避免手中的股份被你買走,他會提出一個很高的價格,甚至想要從你手中買下你擁有的股份;但有時候,當他覺得沮喪時,眼中看到的只是這家企業的一堆問題,這時他會提出一個非常低的報價要把股份賣給你,因為他很怕你會將手中的股份塞給他。

Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.

市場先生還有一個很可愛的特點,那就是他不在乎受到冷落。若今天他提出的報價不被接受,隔天他還是會上門重新報價,要不要交易完全由你自主,所以在這種情況下,他的行為舉止越失措,你可能得到的好處也就越多。

以上內容節選自1987年巴菲特致股東信